tv Ali Velshi on Target Al Jazeera March 20, 2016 3:30pm-4:01pm EDT
highlighting the effects of climate change and some millions of people across the planet turn off their lights for an hour. much more on that and everything else that we have been covering on our website, the address on your screens right now, aljazeera.com. "on target" tonight. robots in the workplace. cyber war between nations and designer babies our digital future and how it will change the way we live. get ready because the future is coming. how many times have you heard that? now you're going to hear a lot about a so-called fourth industrial revolution. that's already upon us by the way. this revolution will undo the global industrial economy which has underpinned the advance he made by society for more than 200 years.
replacing the old model will be a global digital economy fueled by advances in data technology information and robotics as well as advances in genetic and biological sciences. that's a lot but to really understand the gravity of what i'm talking about it is useful to go back in history and see how transformative past been. in the late 1700s the british pioneered the use of water superheated to mechanize production. that led to factories dotting the country side. the second industrial revolution starting in the late 1800s switched to coal powered electrical power to create mass production. the economies of stale changed the course of human history, by destroying cottage industries and lured workers to the cities and towns.
in the final decades of the 20th century took off by the use of electronics and information technology to automate that technology. the devices that we couldn't imagine living without today. the revolution that's underway today is being fueled by billions of people and things connectby mobile devices with unprecedented processing power. more storage capacity than you could ever imagine and access to knowledge. the possibilities are multiplied by emerging technologies and artificial technology. nanotechnology and biotechnology, like all the revolutions before them, this one will come from winners and losers, the disruption will are abeas life change as any other. joining me
is alec ross, the grandson of a man who dug the coal out of the mines of west virginia. alec was advisor on innovation to the the secretary of secretary of state. author of a must read new book, the industries of the future. in the book he says this new digital revolution connecting everything and everyone will generate prosperity for millions of people worldwide. but at a cost. he estimates that it will also eliminate some 5 million jobs around the globe because of the trend towards automation. alec, good to see you. i'm so much smarter for reading this book. the dirty little secret behind the remarkable advances and the great valuations we put on tech companies are the people who, like your grandparents, the people you worked with and grew
up with in west virginia, the coal workers who are now decreasing in value and important to our society, that's going to do this revolution we're in is going to do this to droves of other people. >> that's exactly right. if you think of the last wave of automation it really displaced the work of men with strong shoulder working in ports factories mills and mines. the technologies that are be invented now are not only going to displace the work of men with strong are shoulders, but white collar workers, increasingly cognitive nonroutine work. this is really significantly going to impact the workforce and it's going to force us to make tough choices how we educate people to meet and succeed in that world. >> you wrote in the book that we're made of the same stuff that people are smart.
you believe that talent is everywhere but opportunity very clearly is not everywhere, and we are seeing this in america. we are seeing this in how inequality, wage inequality, income inequality and the dissatisfaction that so many americans are feeling in this political cycle. this is about opportunity not being equal. >> no, third. look i grew up as you -- no this is right. i grew up, i was a teacher in west baltimore, some concentrated urban poverty. but then i've been in the white house situation room and i got news for you, i couldn't have a stronger conviction that the kids i grew up with in west virginia, kids i taught in baltimore are made of the same stuff that the people i worked with in the white house situation room. but there's a misalignment of the educations that are being be delivered in the communities
that are producing the people who get to work in the white house. >> you have studied education world. there is no shortage of the ability to fix our unequal states. there is no work that has to be done to figure it out. so what is it, is it just political will, that there are entrenched interests that don't want to see it changed? >> it is political will. you can't take an incremental approach to making a pivot to the fourth industrial -- to the fourth industrial age. and what we also have to do is, we have to focus on segments of our education system that honestly the cool kids don't focus on. like i vocational education. what we need to do is also focus on things like vocational education and make sure the skills being developed there really match where the job growth is. >> you talk about west virginia. when you were there, when you were growing up it was towards
the end of the heyday. west virginia you notably point out separated around virginia around the civil war era because virginia was civil and rural and west virginia was powering the world with its coal. >> that's right. >> you saw the population of the west virginia dropped significantly when you were a kid but baltimore was a place people went to work after an industrial revolution, they went to wor wentto work in factories and mis and that has also been lost. >> that's exactly right. as we move from an industrial economy to an increasingly technology rich knowledge based economy where we really have to look now is where is the data. land was the raw material of the agricultural age. iron was the raw material of the industrial age. data is the raw material of the information age. so in a very high cost labor market like the united states, all we can really viably create
are knowledge - -based industries. wherever we are, we have to figure out what are the knowledge products, what are the things we can do with data to constitute the products and services of the future. >> fundamentally who is at risk? you've been able to outline areas of training where they will flourish because of this new age and others that will entirely disappear and some of them are not intuitive. if someone is watching this and they have a high school age child what should they be thinking about? >> don't send them to law school first of all. the repetitive thousand dollar an hour highest paid lawyer sort of the consigliere, her job will be 79. but the work that my father did,
that will be replaced by artificial intelg. >> a very small proportion of the lawyers out there. >> very spall. anything contractual, things that are repetitive in nature are going to be largely eliminated. let's focus on those that are not. not eliminated are those things that are inherently humanistic. things that involve emotional intelligence and understanding of behavioral psychology, strong communication skills. the best possible education we can get our kids right now is the necessary scientific and technological literacy but combine it with these attributes from the humanities and put them together. those are going to be the attributes our kids really need. >> you mentioned data. we live if a society, where some are embracing everything you can do with data and some are intimidated by it. that our privacy will be gone,
we will be unsafe, all of data is meant to be stolen and it's about intelligence. how do you navigate that road? >> one thing i would say is the industry of the future is neither a utopian or a distoapan. distoppian. by the same token i don't view this issue from the fetal position. here's what i think. i think that we are going to lose a lot of our privacy. this is like gravity. it is inevitable. today in march of 2016 we live in a world of 16 billion internet connected devices. four years from now which is not that long from now, that number is going to go from 16 billion to 40 billion. forget about surveillance, this is suveilance, i'm sorry i'm especially sorry this as the father of three young children
they will gr grow up with a word that is inherent less privacy. but norms will change. in a world where everybody will have a scandal -- >> scandal will not be important. we'll get back to people running for office -- >> you're right, we'll leave fingerprints where nobody will care. >> stay with me i want a conversation with robotics and bitcoin. i'll converse about our cyber future with alec ross and who stands to win and two who stands to >> stopping the next generation of isis recruits. teaching the youth on the front lines. working towards a better future.
>> get ready because the future is coming. the new digital economy is taking over and it's undoing our global industrial economy in the process. advances in information technology data crunching, automation and robotics as well as advances in science are changing human society beyond recognition. the possibilities for increasing our prosperity are huge but so are the pitfalls. for those whom the revolution leaves behind. i'm back with alex ross, he's the technology futurist. author of a book just out.
our iphones build by foxconn in china. foxconn is going to have, they have more than almost half a million robots now and they are going to have a million i guess in the next couple of years ago. they have a million workers and they have a million robots. this is fascinating. one of the cheapest labor cost places in the world is replacing its low-level labor with robots. what are the implications of all of us including china? >> so if you think about robots and humans they have die die die diametrically opposed , robots are the exat opposite. they expensive to buy a big robot, once you got them, can you work them 24 hours a day, don't get
sick or unionize. as the computers grow more affordable there are equilibrium points. >> moore's law gives us more computing power at the same cost every couple of years. >> terry gu, the ceo of foxconn has announced he doesn't want to hire any other humans, even though these are low cost chinese laborers, brought from the chinese interior, that's too expensive, he's going to buy a robot. what this is going to mean this is going to significantly change global labor markets. we can't just count on played in china meaning there is going to be a continual creation of an upwardly mobile middle class there. >> when you look at china these are places that have brought themselves out of extreme poverty. you write in your book india was the india of remarkable famine and mother teresa and now, india is growing prosperity.
same with china, they moved people from the villages to the cities, so they could serve half the world. if that goes away does half the world still remain poor? >> i choose to take a mostly optimistic view of this. if you look at hundreds of years of history whenever we've automatethings in industry in farms, we've always said what are we going to do next? and yet we have created those fields which produce the jobs of tomorrow. i'm choosing to be optimistic. >> what about these displaced workers? you and i travel a lot and you have a great analogy for cab drivers for diplomats and journalists, they are the best source. an autonomous car, may not be as rich or textured or interesting. you may not be riding with someone who is riding through
the economic cycle of life, educating their kid, it does change the fabric of society when automation takes on such a role. >> it absolutely does. in the face of this i will say as the science grows more powerful, as the technology reaches more and more into our lives we've got to assert our human values more so than ever before. i'm not a luddite. i think now as much as ever it's important for us to assert our human values. all right, what are the norms that we want around us? what are the regulations that we want around us. what are the practices and protocols around all of this so we aren't completely overrun by the machines. we are telling the machines what to do not the machines telling us what to do. >> when you talk about the automation of cars, you write a lot about genetics and genetic code and you think that's the next billion dollar industry,
the remarkable advances. we're also going to live now not only are we going to lose some of our jobs, we are going to live a lot longer so we have to learn how to make money. >> the next trillion dollar industry is going to be created out of genetic code. finally 15 years after the mapping of the human genome, we are going to be able to create the personalized medicines that will keep us alive three, four, five years longer. as the changes take place in the labor force we're going to be outside of the workforce longer and this makes me think that we're going to have to do more and more and more to have a good safety net in place. >> you also talk about bitcoin and block chain technology. we have really struggled on this show to understand the value of this. particularly to our viewers. and you talk about conversations that you've had with lloyd blank blankfein the head of goldman sachs who year after year
dismissthe viability of cryptocurrencies and then changed his mind. tell the me about this. >> i think bitcoin is one of the search engines from the 1990s, i don't think that bitcoin is going to compete with the dollar, euro, yen or yuan. but there is a thing inside bitcoin called the block chain. it is a computer science break through which i do think is going to be ooh applied and be able to create -- abc a competitor to the dollar the yuen, the euro, that is going to allow us to do highly trusted transactions between people where normally you would want or need a human like buying tickets, settling a legal contract, stock seams things like this that -- sales things
like this that have a lot of friction and olot of cost. i think cost is going to go to near zero as this block chain technology fleables enables it. >> what should i do in this weird changing economy? your answer the most important job you'll ever have? >> being a parent. being a parent. i wrote this book through the eyes of somebody with a 13-year-old son 11-year-old daughter and a nine-year-old son. guys like you and i ali, we're going to read the book think where we're going to invest and what our jobs will look like in ten or 15 years. but when i researched this and wrote this i was really thinking about my kids and trying to light a little path for parents so that parents know what kind of interventions they should be making in their kids' lives now so when they get into this very complicate id workforce the kids are ready for tomorrow. >> great answer, alec, great to
>> i am talking tonight about a so-called fourth industrial revolution, happening right now. its power has the potential to reshape the global economy. it involves integrating smart internet connected machines with human labor and it blends the digital, physical and biological worlds. this revolution is happening fast and the people at the forefront of it stand to win big but like every revolution there
behind. that is one of the issues that was front and center at the world economic conference at davos switzerland. >> probably why i enjoy it more than any i've ever been to, this fourth industrial revolution is really digital air. 1990s when the u.s. launched the are aviation age. president obama was amazing he created 18% growth in real gdp and he raised the average income of every american by 17ers. this digital era will do the same thing except five to ten times the impact. the implications are 1 to 3% gdp growth, 19% economic benefit but it will result in disruption however.
you have got to think of it in terms of invocation, start july countries, rescaling your workforce, inclusive of the entire country every children, you've got to think about health care and education and we'll go the connect a thousand devices when cisco was first formed to 14 billion to get the right innovation to the right person and the right machine, and health care and entertainment, but it will require all of this changing very disruptive. i think it can create a much larger middle class in the middle east, startup nations not in the traditional industries but in the whole new era of applications and health care and education. i'm the optimist on the middle east but it requires both the government leaders the citizens and the government leaders coming together. >> it's the implementation of academies basically places in which people can get easy access
to the education and training required that will introduce them into the areas where they can developing apps. >> exactly. each of the countries need to be think about retransforming their education, you see france hollande doing that, modi in india the same thing. they have to create a million jobs per month in india as they go forward. it requires an education reset, more of a startup mentality. from cisco we treat a million student per year with network academies. we're going to take that up to two million. when someone graduates from network academies they use 92% of what they learn every day. they get great offers. it talks about the important of rescaling and et cetera. >> the fourth revolution it is
all the at tha tack at daf daiv davos. one of the difficulties had a i feel is that we honor, innovation technology, we honor it in the markets, honor what happens but we sort of ignore the dislocation and the disruption the jobs that will be lost. we're very excited about autonomous cars and driverless cars but we're not so sure about the drivers who flake a living out of it. how are we addressing it and how should we be addressing it? >> when the first information era, president clinton introduced it to all in terms of the impact it can have, many were concerned about the disruption of the jobs that it would create a have and have not society in the u.s., there
wouldn't be new job creation and innovation wouldn't happen, 18% growth in gdp, 17% growth and real per capita growth for all americans on average. :00 optimist, will there be disruption, absolutely, 40% of the companies in the middle east or in the u.s. will not exist in ten years but there will be more than that number of new companies created and it will -- >> they won't are employed in the same way. >> i think they actually play, not in the same way, good point. i think they will employ more people than exist today but the people will be doing different johns. so when you think about what it really -- jobs. so when you think about what it means in the future, you may be drying an application for how a driverless car works. insurance person looking at a damage from a storm, you basically learn how to program a drone, look at the damage and come back.